Ezra Klein: Candidate Obama vs President Obama

Great Op-ed:
At the 2007 Jefferson-Jackson dinner in Iowa, Obama delivered a speech that proved decisive in his campaign’s victory there, and thus his national victory. But its core wasn’t a policy agenda. It was, in a way, a philosophical agenda. It was a promise about how Obama would do business more than about what business he would do. .............But President Obama soon found himself faced with a choice: he could change U.S. politics, or change U.S. policy. He chose changing policy.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-01/we-asked-obama-for-change-got-t-shirts-instead-commentary-by-ezra-klein.html

Bartlett on Revenue Declines from Bush Tax Cuts

This is a brief quote from a recent Bruce Bartlett article on Newt Gingrich. The article is a good read but I found this stat particularly useful:
For example, Republicans frequently assert that tax cuts, especially for the rich, generate so much economic growth that they lose no revenue. This theory has been thoroughly debunked, most recently by the tax cuts of the George W. Bush administration, which, according to C.B.O., reduced revenues by $3 trillion. Nevertheless, conservative groups like the Heritage Foundation (where I worked in the 1980s) still peddle the snake oil that the Bush tax cuts paid for themselves.

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/29/gingrich-and-the-destruction-of-congressional-expertise/?partner=rss&emc=rss

Robert Dallek Column on Why We Love Certain Presidents

Great column here from Robert Dallek at Bloomberg that discusses why we favor certain Presidents from our history and why our simplistic assumptions contribute to our current political problems.

But America’s current political divide has produced equally ludicrous notions of outsized defects. The contemporary conservative idea that government is the source of all the country’s woes is reductionist and worse. The Tea Party crowd seems incapable of understanding that New Deal and Great Society programs humanized the U.S. industrial system and saved free enterprise from its worst excesses.
On the other side, the Occupiers have decried the greatest concentration of wealth since the 19th-century Gilded Age, but they have been too quick to strike out at symbols of the national malaise without advancing a coherent agenda for righting social and economic wrongs.
The country is unquestionably struggling with large economic problems that jeopardize its domestic tranquility and future prosperity. But anti-government rhetoric and anti-Wall Street complaints hardly provide credible answers. The opposing sides see nothing ahead but doom and gloom unless they win command of the nation’s power centers and enact their programs of change.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-30/kennedy-reagan-loved-for-all-the-wrong-reasons-robert-dallek.html

US Actually Net Fuel Exporter

 This is going to be the first year since 1949 in which America exports more fuel than it imports, thanks to sagging demand at home and booming economies elsewhere.

http://www.newser.com/story/134359/us-becoming-net-fuel-exporter.html?utm_medium=goognews&utm_campaign=chan3_feed

Chart on Deficit

Great chart below from Crandall, Pierce & Co.

Howard Marks on U.S. Taxes

I've put in a link to an interesting memo from Howard Marks, CEO of Oaktree. This is a very comprehensive piece on our current tax policy as well has future alternatives for the tax structure of the US. While I disagree with some of the points he makes in his conclusion, this is still a worthwhile read in order to understand the tax issue at hand.


The top 1% of U.S. taxpayers pay 38% of all individual federal taxes. The top 10% pay 70% of all taxes, the top 25% pay 86%, and the top 50% pay 97%.
That leaves the bottom 50% of all taxpayers paying only 3% of the total.
About half of Americans pay no federal income tax, and almost 25% pay no federal taxes at all.
The average federal income tax rate for the top 1% of Americans is 23% (and for the top half it's 14%), while the average rate for the bottom half is 3%.

Notwithstanding the rhetoric, there's no doubt about the fact that America's top earners are taxed more heavily than the rest. On the other hand, they pay at lower rates than they used to (when I was a boy the top marginal rate was 94%), and it seems progressivity has declined.
". . . the effective federal tax rate, including payroll taxes, for the wealthiest 0.01 percent of earners fell to 31.5 percent in 2005, from 42.9 percent in 1979 [for a decline of 26.6%], according to data from the Congressional Budget Office. Over the same time, effective rates for taxpayers in the center of the range fell to 14.2 percent, a decrease of just 4 percentage points [or 22.0%]." (The New York Times, September 21, 2011)
.....................
One of the outstanding characteristics of the U.S. economy at this time is the rising dispersion between incomes. The percentage of total income going to higher earners has been increasing dramatically, whether because of (a) the rising importance of education and technological literacy or (b) the movement of work offshore, the declining availability of blue-collar jobs and the reduced power of private-sector unions to garner wage gains. And given the pattern of tax cuts and the special treatment given to income on capital, the tax system has magnified the divergence.
A recent report from the Congressional Budget Office provided dramatic evidence of the divergent trends in income. It outlined the percentage gain in average inflation-adjusted after-tax income of various income groups between 1979 and 2007:
Top 1% of the population in terms of income: 275%
Next 19%: 65%
Middle 60%: 40%
Bottom 20%: 18%

http://www.valuewalk.com/2011/11/howard-marks-memo-taxing/

Fact or Fiction: Grover Norquist

This is an interesting fact checker article on Grover Norquist. The Washington Post has several articles on Mr. Norquist on its website today, some that support him and some that deride him. Rather than get caught up in that mess, I suggest you read this article to at least see if his facts are correct. As you can see below, many are not:

Finally, let’s examine Norquist’s claim that “we just wasted $800 billion on stimulus spending that added to debt that killed jobs. There are fewer jobs than before.”
First of all, Norquist appears to have forgotten that, depending on how you do the math, the stimulus bill included between $218 billion and $288 billion in tax cuts. Norquist is a huge fan of marginal rate reductions so perhaps he does not consider items such as the “Making Work Pay” tax credit to be a true tax cut. But it is simply incorrect to refer to “$800 billion of stimulus spending.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/post/grover-norquist-a-misleading-accounting-of-recent-history/2011/11/27/gIQAAhER2N_blog.html

Terrific Article on Governance in the US

I have found very few articles that cut to the heart of what's wrong in today's political environment better than this article by Clive Crook of Bloomberg. Please take the time to read it. Some relevant selections:

• Lately the ideological center in Congress has thinned, and the distance between the parties has widened. Compromise has come to be seen as surrender -- and the U.S. government has all but come to a halt.
• One school of thought says that voters only think they want compromise. If they saw it, they wouldn’t like it...... I don’t believe it. I have a higher opinion of voters. Most of them, I think, would support the Simpson-Bowles approach if it were offered to them and properly explained. Somebody ought to try it, at least.
• My own theory of U.S. political paralysis is not that a deeply divided electorate is getting what it asks for, but that the balance of power between party leaders and activists has moved too far in favor of activists. This leaves the center disenfranchised. Activists are not ordinary people......The insurgents have pushed a modern Republican Party that was conservative to begin with much further to the right.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-23/paralyzed-congress-better-than-self-destruction-commentary-by-clive-crook.html

WSJ Video onhiring practices of U.S. Multinational Firms

WSJ CEO Conference- Simpson/Bowles Interview

This is a must read for anyone concerned with recent budget deficit proposals.


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203699404577041774026396602.html

Supercommittee primed to fail

From Bloomberg.com

"A debt-reduction committee with special powers that was supposed to dissolve congressional gridlock in Washington is instead on the brink of failure, setting the stage for $1.2 trillion in automatic spending cuts.
The 12-member bipartisan supercommittee likely will announce today that it can’t reach agreement on deficit savings, according to a Democratic aide. The aide, who wasn’t authorized to discuss internal matters publicly and requested not to be identified, said in an e-mail that it was highly unlikely that the committee’s talks could be salvaged."

While it was easy to see this coming, this is still a very disappointing development. The U.S. government's gridlock is now a major drag on our economic recovery. At this pace, it is only a matter of time before markets punish us for the immature actions of our government.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-21/u-s-debt-supercommittee-is-said-to-be-poised-to-announce-failure-of-talks.html#

Developing Market Growth in 2030

I've included a couple of useful charts from a recent OECD report on the emerging middle class in developing countries, It is amazing to not the projected growth in consumption in Asia over the next 20 years.
http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/12/52/44457738.pdf

Newt's side jobs

There are a couple of good articles below about the "consulting" work of Newt Gingrich over the past decade or so. Is there any better job in the world than being an ex-congressman? Not only did Newt make $1.6 million for his work with Freddie Mac, he was also paid $840,000 by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. His task at the chamber: "was to attend dinner or lunch with Chamber officials every few months and serve as a sounding board on various economic issues". $120k a year plus free lunches and dinners? Sign me up.



http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204517204577044551356125444.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-18/gingrich-the-historian-skips-over-his-own-past-jonathan-alter.html

Income Inequality and Economic Growth

Check out this great article in BusinessWeek with two of my favorite sources of information: Barry Ritholz and Raghuram Rajan.

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/how-inequality-hurts-the-economy-11162011.html

The case for increasing corporate taxes

Please take a look at this chart and follow the link to a great blog post on Felix Salmon. This highlights how low corporate income taxes are as a percentage of total corporate profits. As we head into crunch time on the budget supercommittee, I think its beneficial to realize how low taxes (for corporate and personal) are at this point in time. We currently are receiving tax revenue of roughly 15% of GDP and paying expenditures of 24-25% of GDP, which accounts for our huge deficit.  Long-term averages for both revenue and expenditures are roughly 18.5%.At this point in time, the right only wants to focus on spending cuts. This is ignorant due to the fact that it will be very difficult to keep spending at 19% or below as the baby boom moves to retirement age and cost of retirement and healthcare increase. Like it or not, it is almost impossible to imagine a situation in which the budget is balanced unless taxes are increased.


http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/

Children's Health Crisis

The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey released a  troubling report this week on the cardiovascular health of American adolescents. The most troubling statistic of all is the fact that zero of the 5,450 adolescents surveyed had an ideal diet. This obviously play a huge role in the rise of childhood and adolescent obesity in this country over the past several decades.

Within this context, it is equally troubling the Congress has not stepped to the forefront to combat this health issue. Instead they have done the opposite. Please follow this Washington Post link to a blog post the discusses the fact that Congress has recently voted to allow pizza to count as a vegetable on school menu's across the country. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/compost/post/move-over-ketchup-pizza-is-a-vegetable/2011/11/16/gIQAk1okRN_blog.html



http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204517204577042412501431378.html?mod=WSJ_WSJ_US_News_5

Washington Insider Trading

Just when it seems like the corruption that exists within the Washington establishment cannot possibly shock you anymore, you get blindsided by a nugget like this  http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2011/11/13/peter-schweizer-s-new-book-blasts-congressional-corruption.html  .

At first glance it seems amazingly illegal for politicians to profit from insider trading but as Zachary Karabell explains for The Daily Beast:
Yet insider-trading laws do not apply to what many members of Congress have done. Because their privileged information does not come from company insiders and because congressional representatives are not employees of any public company, their trades do not fall under the definition of illegal insider trading. In short, because they trade on material nonpublic information about spending that they acquire as elected representatives, rather than on material nonpublic information provided by companies, they have not broken the law.
\
While this trading may not be illegal, it is incredibly immoral and citizens should expect better from their politicians. I really hope this budding controversy has legs and naively believe that some sort of limiting legislation should come out of this.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/11/15/ethically-challenged-congress-needs-law-or-code-banning-insider-trading.html

Snapshot on European Debt

HT: The Big Picture

http://www.economist.com/node/21536872

The reason the Health Law may not pass the Supreme Court

Over the next nine month we may finally reach a resolution regarding weather the Affordable Care Act is constitutional or not. Rulings have been mixed so far, with most lower courts backing the ACA. With that being said, however, there is still a strong possibility that the law will not pass. This is not necessarily due to the politics of the matter or whether a more substantial healthcare system has the support of the American people. Rather it is regards to how the law was written and the fact that the legislation was not written as a tax, rather as a fine for people who choose not to have healthcare.

President Obama and Congressional Democrats decided to write the law in this manner because they believed that if the ACA was written as a tax it would not gather enough votes in Congress to pass. This creates a problem because it forces the Justice Department to explain how this law still manages to limit Congressional power. If the law were an income tax, than people could "choose" not to pay it by not working and earning income, citizens have no such choice when it comes to a fine.  Because limiting federal powers is one of the bedrock values of the Constitution, this argument may become the core of the upcoming Supreme Court case, as yesterdays NY Times article on the subject explains:
"The case focuses on whether Congress overstepped its constitutional authority in enacting parts of the law. Lower courts have reached divergent conclusions.
Even judges in lower courts who ultimately voted to uphold the law have homed in on the question of the limits of government power, at times flummoxing Justice Department lawyers.
“Let’s go right to what is your most difficult problem,” Judge Laurence H. Silberman, who later voted to uphold the law, told a lawyer at an argument in September before the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit. “What limiting principle do you articulate?” If Congress may require people to purchase health insurance, he asked, what else can it force them to buy? Where do you draw the line? "
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/14/us/politics/health-law-debate-puts-focus-on-limit-of-federal-power.html

There are more similarities than you think between OWS and Tea Party

Please follow the link below to a great WSJ article from Gerald F. Seib. In this article Gerald explains the many similarities between Occupy Wall Street and the Tea Party and what the discontent of both groups represents. Below are some useful passages:

• Almost half of Americans identify themselves as supporters of one movement or the other. Contrary to popular perceptions, the tea-party movement attracts more white-collar support than blue-collar support, and the largest contingent of Occupy Wall Street supporters isn't young but rather middle-aged.
• But a deeper look shows a much more complex web of sympathy. The age group that expresses the strongest support isn't those under 35, but rather those 50 to 64.
  Support is highest not among those who make under $30,000 a year, but rather among those who make $50,000 to $70,000. And 27% of those who make more than $75,000 a year count themselves as backers. Backing is strongest in the West, not the Northeast.
  Professionals and managers are more likely to voice support for Occupy Wall Street than are blue-collar workers. And here, as in the tea-party movement, support is highest among men, and particularly those 50 and over.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203503204577037980400569026.html

Analysis on the Flat Tax

Please follow the link below to an article from Project Syndicate on the flat tax. It seems as if every Republican nominee is pushing their own version of a flat tax this election cycle which makes understanding the advantages/disadvantages of the structure worthwhile. Personally, I am opposed to such a tax system. My reasoning for this is that if the tax is to be revenue neutral (and some would argue it would have to be revenue positive due to the current budget deficit), and if it thus lowers the top tax rate, it will undoubtedly cause people with lower incomes to pay more in taxes. Not only does this seem like bad policy in light of the trends in income inequality over the past 30 years, it also would most likely reduce aggregate demand in the economy due to the fact that poor people spend almost all of their money on consumption (creating market demand) while wealthy people often save/invest their excess income. 

Here are a couple of useful excerpts from the article:
But, if a flat tax is such a bad idea, why have so many countries embraced it?......A careful study of these countries – mainly post-communist countries in Eastern Europe and a smattering of tiny micro-states worldwide – suggests that there are three main reasons. First, some countries are so relatively poor and lacking in domestic capital that they opt to drop rates in order to attract foreign investors. Other countries are so small and ineffective at collecting revenue that they cannot afford a progressive tax system. Finally, some countries are so corrupt that they have to offer the wealthy a huge rate cut to get them to pay any taxes at all.

For developed countries that already have capital and a track record of inward investment, “the appeal of the flat tax is consequently less,” as a report by the International Monetary Fund concludes. Thus, the flat tax has not been adopted in any developed countries, or in China.

A country’s tax system reflects its institutional capacity, economic circumstances, and distribution of political power. If the US were to become the first developed country to experiment with a flat tax, that shift would tend to confirm what many suspect but hope is not true: that America is broke, desperate for inward investment, incompetently governed, and increasingly ruled by a self-regarding oligarchic elite.


http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/orenstein4/English

Climate Change in the next 5 years could be irreversible

From the Guardian referencing a recent report by the International Energy Agency

The world is likely to build so many fossil-fuelled power stations, energy-guzzling factories and inefficient buildings in the next five years that it will become impossible to hold global warming to safe levels, and the last chance of combating dangerous climate change will be "lost for ever", according to the most thorough analysis yet of world energy infrastructure.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/nov/09/fossil-fuel-infrastructure-climate-change?newsfeed=true

Effectiveness of 2009-2010 Government Assistance

This is a great chart from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. It highlights the fact that 7 million people were kept above the poverty line because of various recent government initiatives. From Arloc Sherman:

Six temporary federal initiatives enacted in 2009 and 2010 to bolster the economy by lifting consumers’ incomes and purchases kept nearly 7 million Americans out of poverty in 2010, under an alternative measure of poverty that takes into account the impact of government benefit programs and taxes.  These initiatives — three new or expanded tax credits, two enhancements of unemployment insurance, and an expansion of benefits through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, formerly called food stamps) — were part of the 2009 Recovery Act.  Congress subsequently extended or expanded some of them.
http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=3610

GOP and Taxes, the danger of our current tax policy

I have included this table from a great article in this month's Rolling Stone written by Tim Dickinson titled "How the GOP Became the Party of the Rich". Regardless of your political viewpoint, I encourage you to read this. I believe that, in light of upcoming events, the important takeaway is that raising taxes is not inherently a Democratic viewpoint. I think that it is also important to look at what individuals and industries have benefitted from tax cuts over the past ten years and what services and infrastructure we may have sacrificed because of them. Either way, take a look and feel free to fact check the information. The one thing that I will say is that at this point in time no party should be removing defecit reduction possibilities off of the table and comprimise will be needed if we are going to get the country on more sound financial footing.


http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/how-the-gop-became-the-party-of-the-rich-20111109

Joe Walsh turning a blind eye to reality

Please take a look at the video below. This is a great example of what Barry Ritholtz labels as cognitive dissonance. I've scene this repeatedly from conservative politicians and analysts over the past few years as they continue to try to blame government for wall street excesses while ignore the fact that the vast majority of housing excess came from the private sector. Is it too much to ask for our politicians to take an interest in learning the facts about the world that surrounds them instead of regurgitating rhetoric?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/11/08/joe-walsh-screams-at-cons_n_1083014.html

Deficit Reduction Outlook Gloomy

I've included some excerpts from a very good article in today's National Journal, the link to the article is below:

"Rep. Mick Mulvaney, R-S.C., told a National Journal panel on the 2012 election that he fully expected the super committee to fail and expected all of the underlying political and policy issues to be settled, at least in part, by the 2012 election"
-I truly hope that Rep Mulvaney is wrong here. If recent developments in Europe have taught us anything it is that time cannot be taken for granted when it comes to fiscal reform.

"We can all, of course, be comforted by a public review of deficit-reduction proposals that are nearly a year old. Testifying on Tuesday were Bowles; former Sen. Alan Simpson, R-Wyo.; former Clinton budget director Alice Rivlin; and former Sen. Pete Domenici, R-N.M. Simpson and Bowles had theirs ($4 trillion in deficit reduction by 2020). Rivlin and Domenici had theirs ($4.5 trillion in deficit reduction with $877 billion in debt reduction by 2020). Neither is new nor poorly understood. Neither contains a single budgetary insight or revelation any of the 12 super committee members has not heard before. Both commissions, however, made choices.

Choices. Policy choices. Both raised taxes and cut spending. It doesn’t matter how, which is to say it doesn’t matter how unless and until the super committee contemplates deficit reduction of that size. That means $4 trillion over 10 years. But the super committee is clawing around looking for about one-fourth of that. Bottom line: The magnitude of change to tax and spending policy contemplated by both commissions is far larger than anything the super committee is looking at now. Bowles told the super committee $4 trillion is not “the maximum” or the “ideal” figure. It is, he said with a hard glare, “the minimum.”"

The more this negotiation gets bogged down, the more I believe that President Obama made a grave tactical error in largely ignoring the Simpson-Bowles Commission's report last year. He should have had the fortitude to press for massive deficit reduction in 2010 in order to avoid running into election year politics. He also would've benefited from the bipartisan nature of the commission, which could have provided him with some cover from right wing attacks.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/columns/all-powers/the-john-kerry-moment--20111101

Italy Spreads Continue to Widen Out

This is a graph of Italian sovereign CDS spread movements over the past year. Spreads continue to widen out today with Italian 10 year debt trading at spreads north of 550bps versus German bunds. This is another sign that the markets are starting to force Europe's hands right now. Unless the European Union and European Central Bank are able to coordinate quickly and provide concrete details on a bailout agreement, this could continue to get very ugly. There is a lesson in all of this for US lawmakers, the market often does not wait for political cycles or elections. I truly hope that the budget committee realizes this and comes out with a substantial bipartisan proposal (>$3T) in the next week.

Corp Taxes too Low? I think not

Great article from Bruce Bartlett at the NY Times Economix Blog which makes a strong case that the GOP is wrong in its conclusion that corporate taxes need to decrease. Here is a useful chart but follow the link below for more information.




http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/31/are-taxes-in-the-u-s-high-or-low/#more-113779

WSJ-Piracy in China

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303654804576347190248544826.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

Taibbi Ripping Goldman

Obama cutting excess regulation, disputing Milk=Oil logic

Interesting article from Bloomberg:The White House announced today that 30 U.S. agencies are seeking to repeal or modify regulations in an effort to reduce reporting requirements and save businesses and individuals billions of dollars in compliance costs.
Among the revisions the Obama administration is proposing is elimination of a requirement in some states for vapor recovery systems at gas stations and changes in labeling mandates for hazardous materials, according to a fact sheet prepared by the White House. .............

Already in place as a result of the review is an exemption for the dairy industry from Environmental Protection Agency rules that defined milk as an “oil” and subjected farmers to regulations designed to cover oil spills, Sunstein said, estimating that the change will save the milk and dairy industries $1.4 billion over 10 years in clean-up costs.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-26/white-house-slashes-red-tape-tangling-car-fumes-to-spilled-milk.html

F-35 Joint Strike Fighter- $1 Trillion Price Tag

From WSJ:

"A new Pentagon forecast showing the total cost of owning and operating a fleet of F-35 Joint Strike Fighters topping $1 trillion over more than 50 years has caused a case of sticker shock in Washington."

The article also provided some comparisons (in today's dollars) to other famous government programs.

• Apollo Moon Landings: $164 Billion over 10 years
• Reconstruction in Afghanistan: $62 Billion over 10 years
• Interstate Highway System Construction: $213 Billion

The total cost of those three programs is $439 Billion, less than one half the cost of this single airplane.


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303654804576345590857818106.html?mod=WSJ_hp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsTop

Ezra Klein- How our debt happened

It's very interesting to note how much of our debt can be attributed to the Bush Tax Cuts. I wonder if the Tea-Partiers would've pushed as hard for their extension last year if they had this chart. It would certainly test their commitment to reducing the deficit.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/how-our-debt-happened/2011/05/19/AFOqyk9G_blog.html

WSJ-Public School Fees On The Rise

Are Republican's losing their grip?

Great article from Slate on the continued movement for the Republican party to the right and the problems that this is causing them. Some quotes:

• Christie is not part of the natural constituency for Darwin-denial. He's an intelligent man, a lawyer, a fiscal rather than a social conservative. But Christie is also someone who might want to run for president someday, or be selected as someone's running mate. For those purposes, he must constantly ask himself the question: Am I about to say something to which a white, evangelical, socially conservative, gun-owning, Obama-despising, pro-Tea Party, GOP primary voter in rural South Carolina might object? By this standard, simple acceptance of the theory of evolution becomes a risky stance. To lie or to duck? Christie chose the option of ducking while signaling his annoyance at being put in this ridiculous predicament.
• Like the White Queen in her youth, the contemporary Republican politician must be capable of believing as many as six impossible things before breakfast. Foremost among these is the claim that it is possible to balance the federal budget without raising taxes.
• Even after the release of Obama's birth certificate, however, nearly one-quarter of Republicans still refuse to believe that the president was born in the United States. Conspiracy thinking is flourishing on the right like no time since the McCarthy era. The GOP rank and file is in desperate need of a cold shower, a slap in the face, a wake-up call. But instead of telling the base to get a grip on reality, the party's leaders are chasing after the delusional mob. To get to the front of the line in 2012, Republican candidates must pretend to believe a lot of nonsense than isn't so. Or do they actually believe it?

http://www.slate.com/id/2295128/

WSJ breakdown of Republican Presidential Field

LinkedIn's IPO: Shades of the Tech Boom

LinkedIn had an unbelievably successful IPO yesterday, with one day returns of 109% yesterday. This was the biggest U.S. tech IPO since Google in 2004.

Difficulties in moving out of the West Bank

From the WSJ:

A Must Read for Climate Skeptics

Great article by Brian Merchant at Slate regarding the conversion of climate skeptics. Please read the article at the link below these quotes:

• Until a few months ago, you'd be hard-pressed to find a more classic climate skeptic than D.R. Tucker. A conservative author and radio talk show host, he didn't buy the notion that greenhouse-gas emissions were causing temperatures to rise. He was pretty sure global warming was a hoax perpetrated by Al Gore and a cadre of liberal, grant-hungry scientists. Then Tucker did what partisan pundits and climate skeptics rarely do: He changed his mind.
  "I was defeated by facts," Tucker announced on FrumForum, the popular conservative blog. In an April 18 post, "Confessions of a Climate Convert," Tucker told readers how he came to question the ideologies of the climate debate, examine the science, and conclude that global warming was, in fact, very real.
• This is alarming: Only 48 percent of Americans believe that global warming is at least in part "a result of human activities," according to a 2010 Gallup poll, down from 60 percent in 2007 and 2008.
• Anthony Leiserowitz, director of the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication, attributes this decline to five factors: The economic collapse, a severe decrease in media coverage, weather events like "Snowmaggedon," the efforts of the "denial industry" (the network of industry-funded think tanks and political advocacy groups that push skeptic views), and the "ClimateGate" debacle.
• Tucker's conversion began when he read Morris Fiorina's Disconnect, which outlines the way partisan divisions take shape between Democrats and Republicans, and points out that environmentalism used to be one of conservatives' chief concerns. Tucker's curiosity was piqued.
• a friend convinced Tucker to take a look at the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report—the authoritative synthesis of the most recent peer-reviewed climate science. "Initially I was a bit skeptical. But I kept on reading it, and there was just so much evidence, and it was so detailed, and it was so backed up, and it was so documented, that I was like, 'holy shit, this is for real.' "

The article goes on to highlight the struggles that Tucker and other converts have had in changing other skeptics minds regarding global warming. It is unfortunate how entrenched biases can be in our society, especially those that aren't based on facts.

http://www.slate.com/id/2293607/pagenum/all/#p2

Rajaratnam Found Guilty- Useful Timeline

From the WSJ



http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703864204576317060246641834.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories#project%3Drajdeals_pg%26articleTabs%3Darticle

Tragedy of Sarah Palin

Great article from The Atlantic. Some highlights:

• "During a week spent traveling there recently, I learned that Palin occupies a place in the minds of most Alaskans roughly like that of an ex-spouse from a stormy marriage: she’s a distant bad memory, and questions about her seem vaguely unwelcome. Visitors to Juneau, the capital and a haven for cruise-ship tourism, are hard-pressed to find signs of the state’s most famous citizen—no “Mama Grizzly” memorabilia or T-shirts bearing her spunky slogans. Although the town was buzzing with politics because the legislature was in session, talk of Palin mainly revolved around a rumored Democratic poll showing her to be less popular in Alaska right now than Barack Obama. The only tangible evidence I saw was her official portrait in the capitol and a small sign in the window of a seedy-looking gift shop advertising “Sarah Palin toilet paper.” Alaska has moved on. "
• "As governor, Palin demonstrated many of the qualities we expect in our best leaders. She set aside private concerns for the greater good, forgoing a focus on social issues to confront the great problem plaguing Alaska, its corrupt oil-and-gas politics. She did this in a way that seems wildly out of character today—by cooperating with Democrats and moderate Republicans to raise taxes on Big Business. And she succeeded to a remarkable extent in settling, at least for a time, what had seemed insoluble problems, in the process putting Alaska on a trajectory to financial well-being. Since 2008, Sarah Palin has influenced her party, and the tenor of its politics, perhaps more than any other Republican, but in a way that is almost the antithesis of what she did in Alaska. Had she stayed true to her record, she might have pointed her party in a very different direction. "
• "She kept herself focused, too: though priding herself on her well-advertised social conservatism, she was prepared to set it aside when necessary. Rather than pick big fights about social issues, she declined to take up two abortion-restriction measures that she favored, and vetoed a bill banning benefits for same-sex partners of state workers. "
• ACES has raised a lot more money than almost anyone imagined. That’s largely because of high oil prices. But it also shows that the law is working. ConocoPhillips, BP, and ExxonMobil have reported record profits—so it’s fitting that, in a sense, Alaska has, too. It’s no exaggeration to say that ACES has made the state one of the fiscally strongest in the union. Flush with cash, Alaska produced large capital budgets that blunted the effects of the recession. Moody’s just upped the state’s bond rating to AAA for the first time. While other states reel under staggering deficits, budget cuts, and protests, Alaska has built up a $12 billion surplus, most of it attributable to Palin’s tax. Galvin estimates that it has raised $8 billion more than Murkowski’s tax would have. But given the corruption that plagued the PPT, a better benchmark might be the tax it supplanted—the one put on the books after the Exxon Valdez spill. By that measure, Palin’s major achievement has probably meant the difference between a $12 billion surplus and a deficit.
• After the election, Palin returned to being governor, but she didn’t last long. She says unwarranted ethics investigations are what prompted her to quit. Most Alaskans seem to think she left to get rich. But she also had lost her political base. Republicans had never liked her, Democrats felt betrayed, and everyone believed she was now fixated on the presidency. Today, only about 33 percent of Alaskans hold a favorable view of her. She’s often referred to as “Sarah, Inc.”—just the latest powerful entity seeking to exploit Alaska.

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1969/12/the-tragedy-of-sarah-palin/8492/

The corruption of FIFA

Every sport in today's big money environment appears to be fighting corruption in some way/shape/or form. Fifa, on the other hand, may actually be embracing it. Case in point, some of the allegations made by former FA Chairman Lord Triesman regarding the 2018 and 2022 World Cup bids last December.

• The ex-FA chairman has accused four Fifa members of trying to bribe him, including Fifa vice-president Concacaf president Jack Warner, who denies any wrong doing, of allegedly requesting for £2.5 million to be channelled through him.
• Lord Triesman also alleges the president of the FA of Thailand, Worawi Makudi, asked for control over the TV rights of a friendly between England and Thailand in return for his vote.
• He has also claimed Paraguayan Fifa executive Nicolas Leoz asked him for a knighthood and alleged that Brazil's Ricardo Teixeira said: “Tell me what you can do for me when you come to see me.”
  

There is still more to be found out about this story. The fact of the matter is that Great Britain and the U.S. were both believed to be front runners for the 2018 and 2022 World Cups respectively and the countries lost out overwhelmingly to Russia and Qatar. There had been several cases of bribery revealed prior to the December decision, and it would surprise no one if either of these tournaments were bought rather than earned. FIFA holds itself above all government intervention and its board members effectively are lifetime appointments. This seems to be a fertile breeding ground for this type of foul play.

http://www.goal.com/en-gb/news/2931/go-global/2011/05/10/2479962/former-fa-chairman-lord-triesman-accuses-four-fifa-members

Ezra Klein: The No-Brainer Awards

Great post from Ezra, follow the link:

The No-Brainer awards

By Ezra Klein

This column is usually about the Big Issues. Health-care reform. The deficit. The debt ceiling. The grand, Ragnarok-level clashes (yes I just saw ‘Thor’) between the two parties.
But not today. Today, I want to introduce the No-Brainer Awards: a roll call honoring some of the best legislative ideas you won’t see leading the evening news. These thoughtful bills and responsible reforms aren’t polarizing or sweeping, which you’d think would make it easier for them to pass. But for many of them, the absence of partisan passion means they never make it to the front of the congressional agenda. So let’s give them a push.

The taxpayer receipt: When I buy groceries, I get a receipt. When I buy a chair whose name I can’t pronounce from Ikea, I get a receipt. But once a year, I send a whole heap of money to the federal government and I get . . . nothing. But it would be trivial for Treasury to provide me with an itemized receipt showing how my money was spent. Then, for good or for bad, I’d know.
The White House created an online tool where you can enter your income and tax payments and see what your receipt would look like (make your own at www.whitehouse.gov/taxreceipt), but there are bipartisan bills in both the House and the Senate to go even further and have Treasury send all taxpayers the receipt they deserve.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/the-no-brainer-awards/2011/05/09/AFK41qgG_blog.html#pagebreak

American exceptionalism?

This is a great op-ed piece from Richard Cohen at the Washington Post. You should read the full article at the link below:
American exceptionalism has produced a dysfunctional education system — more than 14,000 school districts, lots of bad (but job-protected) teachers, oblivious parents and students who are too dumb to know they’re dumb. American eighth-graders score 66 points below their Japanese counterparts in math, yet almost 40 percent of American children think they’re good in math. That figure for Japan is 4 percent.

It turns out, however, that some of those most inclined to exalt American exceptionalism are simply using the imaginary past to defend their cultural tics — conventional marriage or school prayer or, for some odd reason, a furious antipathy to the notion that mankind has contributed (just a bit) to global warming. Their enemy is what Gingrich calls “the secular left” — people who not only approve of gay marriage but also apparently don’t fly charter as he does.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-myth-of-american-exceptionalism/2011/05/09/AF2rm0bG_story.html

The Big Picture: Healthcare Myths

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/why-is-healthcare-absurdly-expensive-in-usa-part-2/

Are Americans Paying Enough Taxes?

HT: The Big Picture

From McClatchy writer Kevin Hall:

"Here's a dirty little secret that most Americans don't want to hear: We're under-taxed.
That may sound like heresy; nobody wants to pay more taxes. But by historical standards, what we pay in federal taxes — rich, poor and everyone in between — has gone down.
At a time when Washington is wrestling with how to end federal budget deficits and trim the national debt — huge questions that are expected to dominate the nation's politics through the 2012 elections — the fact that Americans are under-taxed compared with U.S. historic norms is central to the discussion. "

 

 

Read more: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/05/05/113759/this-fact-may-not-sit-well-americans.html#ixzz1LxYy13HH

Not exactly a ringing endorsement for Economists

From Barry Ritholtz of The Big Picture:

"Let’s put aside the fundamental error of classical economics — that Humans are rational, self-interested, profit maximizing creatures. They are clearly not; Humans are actually irrational social animals with flawed cognitive apparatus. Frequently emotional, occasionally self-destructive, often times erratic, humans only rarely exhibit the traits that economics ascribe to them. If the study of economics begins with such a shaky foundation, is it any wonder they get so much wrong?"

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/

Costs of Indian Ocean Pirates: $12 billion

Piracy continues to be a growing concern in the Indian Ocean, mostly due to Somali pirates. Here are some key figures from the articles referenced below.

• The total cost of piracy in the Indian Ocean in 2010 — almost all of it by Somali pirates — is estimated to be between $7 billion (Sh560 billion) and $12 billion (Sh960 billion), and could top $15 billion by 2015, according to analysts.
• A recent study reported that Somali pirates are earning up to $79,000 a year, 150 times the average annual income in Somalia.
• The gulfs of Aden and Oman are among the world’s major shipping lanes: About 21,000 ships, and 11 per cent of global crude oil traffic, cross the Gulf of Aden every year.
• Incidents of piracy have soared from 276 in 2005 to 445 in 2010. According to the International Maritime Bureau, there were 142 attacks between January and March 2011 – 97 off the coast of Somalia – up from 35 in the same period the previous year and an all-time high.
• Pirates managed to seize 18 vessels worldwide, capturing more than 340 hostages in attacks in which seven crew members died and 34 were injured. Over the past five years, Somali pirates’ ransom demands have increased a staggering thirty-six fold, from an average of $150,000 in 2005 to $5.4 million in 2010.
• Britain has agreed to fund a £6 million programme to support counter-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Total+cost+of+Somali+piracy+menace+hits++12bn/-/539546/1158496/-/3g2jinz/-/

http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news/UK+to+fund+prison+for+pirates+as+violence+rises/-/2558/1158254/-/gp0ein/-/

Rising Wages in China-WSJ

Excerpt: Wages are rising in China, heralding the possible end of an era of cheap goods.
For the past 30 years, customers would ask William Fung, the managing director of one of the world's biggest manufacturing-outsourcing companies, to make his products—whether T-shirts, jeans or dishes—cheaper. Thanks to China's seemingly limitless labor force, he usually could.
Now, the head of Li & Fung Ltd. says the times are changing. Wages for the tens of thousands of workers his Hong Kong-based firm indirectly employs are surging: He predicts overall, China's wages will increase 80% over the next five years. That means prices for Li & Fung's goods will have to rise, too.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703849204576302972415758878.html?mod=WSJ_hp_MIDDLTopStories

Quiz to find out where you fit on the political spectrum

Typology Group Profiles

•     Staunch Conservatives
•     Main Street Republicans
•     Libertarians
•     Disaffecteds
•    Post-Moderns
•     New Coalition Democrats
•     Hard-Pressed Democrats
•     Solid Liberals
•     Bystanders

http://people-press.org/typology/quiz/

Golf Industry Gives Back

The video below highlights one of several programs for wounded veterans that are supported by the major golf club manufacturers. These really are terrific programs and its worth taking a closer look below. Some highlights:

• Ping currently has a program of setting up wounded veterans where they receive golf lessons and a free set of custom fit golf clubs.
• Callaway has donated $5 million in golf equipment to 250 military bases through Phil Mickelson's involvement in the Birdies for the Brave program, says Tim Buckman, senior director of global communications.
• TaylorMade also has played a big role in the effort to bring golf to injured veterans in the San Diego area. The company donates equipment and instruction to the San Diego-based program Operation Game On! The program, organized by Tony Perez, the father of PGA Tour pro Pat Perez.
  

http://www.golfdigest.com/golf-tours-news/blogs/local-knowledge/2011/01/hero-fits.html

Difference in Crying between Men and Women-WSJ

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703922804576300903183512350.html?mod=WSJ_LifeStyle_LeadStoryNA

Gun Trafficking from US to Mexico

I've touched upon this issue several times before in this blog but it still seems extremely troubling to me that gun laws are so lax in the US that the majority of Mexican drug cartel weapons are purchased in the US and transported to Mexico. Simply put, it is much easier for criminals to buy weapons here than anywhere else.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703834804576301384065633222.html?mod=WSJ_WSJ_US_News_5
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703834804576301384065633222.html?mod=WSJ_WSJ_US_News_5

Obama's secret meetings-Slate

Below in an excerpt of an article by Jon Dickerson at Slate. It details how a President must compartmentalize his day and juggle both the mundane and critical aspects of his job on a day-to-day basis. It really does provide some useful perspective.

A president criticized for playing golf or spending time in Brazil on the eve of the Libyan invasion would have been relentlessly skewered for engaging in banter with the press on the eve of a dangerous military operation. But it wasn't just Saturday night that the president had to keep his serious brain cordoned off from his less serious brain. During the final phase of the multiyear operation, Obama chaired the National Security Council on five occasions to discuss progress. A look at those five days tells the story of not just how quickly a president must switch between his public and private duties but also how silly some of the public calls for his attention must have seemed to him at the time.
March 14: The president attends Kenmore Middle School in Washington's Virginia suburbs and gives a speech about education policy. He meets with Prime Minister Lars Loekke Rasmussen of Denmark. In the late afternoon, he chairs the meeting on Bin Laden. Shortly thereafter, he attends a Democratic Party fundraising dinner. The news of the day is that the president and Republican leaders have agreed to a second stopgap measure to keep the government open and avoid a shutdown.
March 19: The makeshift command center Obama used in Brazil is thought to be simply the place where he discusses Libya planning on the eve of U.S. operations. But it turns out Obama has been occupied with more than one military operation. The day's activities also include a diplomatic arrival ceremony, a press conference, public remarks and a few receptions.
April 12: The consuming story in Washington is the president's coming budget speech. Liberals who had been angry that Obama had not been a public presence in the budget fight with Republicans over extending government operations for the rest of the year are skeptical that Obama will deliver a forceful rebuttal to the House budget proposed by Rep. Paul Ryan.
April 19: The president starts his day with an Easter Prayer Breakfast, then performs in a town hall with voters, followed by a meeting with various interested parties to discuss immigration. His official schedule ends with a meeting with Secretary of Defense Robert Gates.
April 28: The president announces his new national security team, meets with Hispanic leaders, and then meets with the president of Panama, with whom he delivers statements to the press.
Of all the secrets President Obama has had to carry, the details of the Bin Laden operation was probably one of the biggest. He may have had a special delight in bringing it to the White House Correspondents' Association dinner, where much of the audience lives to publish a president's secrets before he can reveal them. A year earlier, as Obama spoke at the same dinner, the Times Square bomb plot was being foiled. Obama was informed of this shortly after he left the stage. The public wouldn't know for a few hours. Unlike the dinner, such crises are not an annual event. For a president, though, they happen every day.
http://www.slate.com/id/2292754/

Increase of the Federal Debt Burden Over the Past 10 Years

HT: John Mauldin

THis is from a report by David Walker, former Comptroller General of the US

Bin Laden Compound

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704569404576299160987203434.html

Bloomberg on Immigration Reform

Please follow the link below to a very good article on Immigration Reform from Mayor Michael Bloomberg. Some relevant talking points include:

• The idea is simple: Reform the way we attract and keep talented and hard-working people from abroad to better promote economic growth. In the global economy, the countries that attract the world's best, brightest and hardest-working will grow and succeed. Those that refuse them entry will not. America has long understood this. We would not have become a global superpower without opening our doors to immigrants—and we cannot long remain one without continuing that practice. Smart, self-motivated immigrants spur the innovations and create the jobs our economy needs to thrive. Between 1995 and 2005, for example, 25% of high-tech startups in the U.S. had at least one immigrant as a key founder. Those companies alone have created 450,000 jobs—with the vast majority of them going to Americans.
• Our global competitors understand how crucial immigrants are to economic growth. They roll out the red carpet for entrepreneurs; we have no entrepreneur visa. They heavily recruit our advanced-degree students; we educate them and send them home. They woo the engineers, scientists and other skilled professionals who invent new products, launch product lines, and develop the technology of tomorrow; we erect arbitrary, senseless and bureaucratic barriers to recruitment. And we do all this even as our unemployment rate hovers around 9%.
• Creating a visa for entrepreneurs who already have funding to start their businesses will lead directly and immediately to American jobs. Visa reforms to improve temporary and permanent pathways for companies to fill the current shortages of engineers, scientists and other specialists—whose annual visa caps are often exhausted within days of becoming available—will spur growth at existing U.S. companies.
  Providing visas to the brightest foreign graduates of our universities will allow our economy to reap the rewards of their work. At the same time, allowing immigrants who succeed in college, or serve in our military, the chance to pursue a career and build their lives here legally will strengthen the long-term health of the American economy.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703387904576279293334248326.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop

Deficit breakdown from WSJ

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704436004576297812548439184.html?mod=WSJ_hp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsThird

Bin Laden Killed, Questions regarding Pakistan

ABBOTTABAD, Pakistan -- The death of Osama bin Laden in a fortress-like compound on the outskirts of a Pakistani city that is home to three army regiments and thousands of soldiers raises questions over whether Pakistani security forces knew the whereabouts of the world's most wanted man.

The al-Qaida chief was living in a house in Abbottabad that a U.S. administration official said was "custom built to hide someone of significance." The city around 60 miles from the capital Islamabad is a far cry from the remote mountain caves along the Pakistan-Afghanistan tribal border where most intelligence assessments had put bin Laden in recent years.

Critics have long accused elements of Pakistan's security establishment of protecting bin Laden, though Islamabad has always denied this. Ties between the United States and Pakistan have hit a low point in recent months over the future of Afghanistan, and any hint of possible Pakistani collusion with bin Laden could hit them hard even amid the jubilation of getting American's No. 1 enemy.

That bin Laden could be in Abbottabad unknown to authorities "is a bit amazing" says Hamid Gul, a former Pakistani intelligence chief fiercely critical of America's presence in the region. Aside from the military "there is the local police, the Intelligence Bureau, Military Intelligence, the ISI, they all had a presence there."

Residents said the compound was around one kilometer (half a mile) away from the Kakul Military Academy, an army run institution for top officers and one of several military installations in the bustling, hill-ringed town of around 400,000 people.

An American administration official said the compound was built in 2005 at the end of a narrow dirt road with "extraordinary" security measures. He said it had 12 to 18-feet walls topped with barbed wire with two security gates and no telephone or Internet service connected to it.

Pakistan's government and army are very sensitive to concerns that they are working under the orders of America and allowing U.S. forces to operate here. Some critics assailed Pakistan for allowing the operation, while at least one Islamist party was planning a protest against the killing of man idolized by militants inside Pakistan.

The Pakistani Taliban, an al-Qaida allied group behind scores of bombings in Pakistan and the failed bombing in New York's Times Square, vowed revenge.

"Let me make it very clear that we will avenge the martyrdom of Osama bin Laden, and we will do it by carrying out attacks in Pakistan and America," Taliban spokesman Ahsanullah Ahsan told The Associated Press by phone. "We will teach them an exemplary lesson."

Pakistan's former President Pervez Musharraf, who is eyeing a political comeback, said the "killing was the success of all peace loving people of the world." But he also said the Americans should not have been allowed to operate independently in the country.

One Pakistani official said the choppers took off from a Pakistani air base, suggesting some cooperation in the raid. President Barack Obama said Pakistan had provided some information leading to the raid, did not thank the country in his statement on bin Laden's death.

Pakistan's intelligence agency and the CIA have cooperated in joint raids before against al-Qaida suspects in Pakistan on several occasions since the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks. But U.S. and Pakistani officials indicated that this mission was too important to let anyone know more than a few minutes in advance.

Pakistan's foreign office hailed the death as a breakthrough in the international campaign against militancy, and noted al-Qaida "had declared war on Pakistan" and killed thousands of Pakistani civilians and security officers.

It stressed that the operation to kill bin Laden was an American one, and did not mention any concerns that Pakistani officials may have been protecting bin Laden in some way. Domestically, the already weak government may yet face criticism by political opponents and Islamists for allowing U.S. forces to kill bin Laden on its soil, but there were no signs of a major backlash Monday.

Pakistani officials said a son of bin Laden and three other people were killed. Other unidentified males were taken by helicopter away from the scene, while four children and two woman were arrested and left in an ambulance, the official said.

A witness and a Pakistani official said bin Laden's guards opened fire from the roof of the compound in the small northwestern town of Abbottabad, and one of the choppers crashed. However U.S. officials said no Americans were hurt in the operation. The sound of at least two explosions rocked Abbottabad as the fighting raged.

It was not known how long bin Laden had been in Abbottabad, which is less than half a day's drive from the border region with Afghanistan. But Pakistani intelligence agencies are normally very sharp in sniffing out the presence of foreigners, especially in towns with a heavy military presence.

Locals said large Landcruisers and other expensive cars were seen driving into the compound, which is in a regular middle-class neighborhood of dirt covered, litter-strewn roads and small shops. Cabbage and other vegetables are planted in empty plots in the neighborhood.

Salman Riaz, a film actor, said that five months ago he and a crew tried to do some filming next to the house, but were told to stop by two men who came out.

"They told me that this is haram (forbidden in Islam)," he said.

One witness posted live updates throughout the night on his Twitter account.

Sohaib Athar, whose profile says he is an "IT consultant taking a break from the rat-race by hiding in the mountains with his laptops," apparently broke word of the event with "Helicopter hovering about Abbottabad at 1 a.m. (is a rare event) and later: "A huge window shaking bang in Abbottabad. I hope it is not the start of something nasty."

Abbottabad resident Mohammad Haroon Rasheed said the raid happened about 1:15 a.m. local time.

"I heard a thundering sound, followed by heavy firing. Then firing suddenly stopped. Then more thundering, then a big blast," he said. "In the morning when we went out to see what happened, some helicopter wreckage was lying in an open field."

Qasim Khan, 18, who lives in a house just across the compound, said he saw two Pakistani men going in and coming out of the house often in the past several years. One of them was relatively a fat man with a beard, he said.

"I never saw anybody else with the two men but, some kids sometime would accompany them. I never saw any foreigner."

Relations between Pakistan's main intelligence agency and the CIA had been very strained in recent months. A Pakistani official has said that joint operations had been stopped as a result, and that the agency was demanding the Americans cut down on drone strikes in the border area.

In late January, a senior Indonesian al-Qaida operative, Umar Patek, was arrested at another location in Abbottabad.

News of his arrest only broke in late March. A Pakistani intelligence official said its officers were led to the house where Patek was staying after they arrested an al-Qaida facilitator, Tahir Shahzad, who worked at the post office there.

_______

http://seekingalpha.com/news-article/1006860-bin-laden-killed-in-fiery-raid-in-pakistan

Correspondent's Dinner Highlights

Studying China's One-Child Policy

Thirty years ago, China decided to impliment its one-child policy because it believed that it's population was outgrowing its resources. This is one of the more dramatic social experiments of the modern era. Some of the effects of this experiment are highlighted in the following WSJ article. Interesting facts include:

• China appears to have achieved that goal: Initial census results released Thursday show China's population, the world's largest, rose to 1.34 billion as of last year, from 1.27 billion in 2000. That puts average annual growth at 0.57% over the decade, down from 1.07% in 1990-2000.
  The census, conducted last year, also shows that people over the age of 60 now account for 13.3% of China's population, compared to 10.3% in 2000. And the reserve of future workers has dwindled: People under 14 now make up 16.6% of the population, down from 23% 10 years ago.
• The number of workers aged 20-to-24 is already declining due to the lower birth rate two decades ago and a rise in the number of young people seeking higher education. China's traditional preference for boys also means the nation now has about 120 males for every 100 females. By 2020 China could be home to as many as 24 million single young men with little prospect of marrying or having their own children.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704463804576291010133986864.html

Hopefully this will shut Trump up....Probably not

What the Government can do about rising gas prices, nothing you'd like

This is a great read from David Weigel at Slate. It has routinely been highlighted in political poling that a presidents approval rating can decrease as the price of gas increases. This is a somewhat nonsensical reaction as the president has little effect on the price of oil. Weigel discusses this fact by pointing out the falicies in some of the recent arguements for what President Obama should do to combat the increase in prices at the pump.

• "I think the fact that he won't allow exploration in the Gulf, doesn't allow exploration in the inter-mountain west, won't allow us to drill in Alaska, this is not helping the situation," said Boehner. "And then when you look at what the EPA is doing in terms of the number of rules and regulations comin' down the pike, those were his responsibility."
  It would be awfully convenient if new drilling licenses in the Gulf and relaxed EPA regulations could drive the price of oil down. They wouldn't.
  "If someone tries to dupe you into thinking we don't have enough refining capacity, that's bullshit," says Tom Kloza, the co-founder and chief oil analyst of the Oil Price Information Service. "It's a good soundbite, but if anything, companies have probably added too much capacity, and if they add more they have to focus on managing margins."
  It's a good enough soundbite that a lot of Republicans use it to argue that the White House's dithering on Gulf Coast drilling, in the wake of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon disaster, is responsible for rising prices. Oil companies, in this telling, are stuck in a sort of "permitorium." But the Deepwater disaster didn't have much of an effect on prices. When the rig blew on April 20, 2010, crude was trading around $84 per barrel. When the well was capped on July 15 the price had fallen to $76.
• A barrel of brent crude oil costs roughly $50 more today than it did back then. We have some idea why. The critical factor has been the unrest in the Middle East. According to industry analysts, prices have gone up because of worries both about what's already happening and what could happen. The civil war in Libya, a country that usually produces 1.6 million barrels of light, sweet crude every day, has added something like $20 to the price of a barrel of oil—a combination of decreased availability and speculative panic. Worries about what could happen in other OPEC nations are driving the price even higher...........This is where we get to the roles the president and Congress could play in controlling gas prices. The "Arab Spring" is blooming (and burning) mostly out of our control. The major role the United States is playing is as the military linchpin of the Libya intervention. It's an unpredictable, unhappy situation, but no one factor has more bearing on the price of oil.
• So what else can we control? ...........
  According to Bullock, American policymakers could drive prices down if they were willing to settle for less growth. It was less growth, after all, that was largely responsible for the falling gas prices of 2009. No one's calling for an increase in interest rates, but that could also drive down the international price of oil.
• None of this would be particularly easy for American politicians. Is there anything they could do? Why, yes. The president—or members of Congress!—could skip the coming, predictable assault on oil company subsidies, and take on speculators instead. Wars and economic distress are not new to the oil market. But the market for oil futures has never been as big as it is now. It's basically quadrupled since the start of the financial crisis, as investors and funds have sought ought safe, reliable commodities to invest in.
  
  That's the political opening. The only question is whether anyone's actually able to go through it. Theoretically, the president of the United States could talk about this aspect of the gas price problem and elevate it. Unfortunately, the president is Barack Obama, whose every economic move is labeled "socialism" by the opposition, and who has already alienated some of the hedge fund managers in the center of this. A move against the commodities trade from Obama would be less Nixon goes to China than Johnson goes to Vietnam.

http://www.slate.com/id/2292226/pagenum/all/#p2